货币政策对房地产行业发展的影响外文翻译资料

Monetary Policy on The Impact of the Development of the Real Estate Industry

P. R. Krugman

With the rapid growth of our economy, the two angles of real estate developers and homebuyers are analyzed. Industry has got unprecedented development, and the real estate industry, the two monetary policy impact on real estate developers of capital intensive characteristics make its monetary policy by countries for most real estate enterprises, bank loans is greatly influenced by the changes. Monetary policy including the main sources of funds for the real estate development, but from the rate, exchange rate and price can be applied to the real estate price developed countries outside the operation of a mature real estate development, the analysis of the shadow mode of monetary policy on the real estate market, has a wide channels of funding sources, in addition to bank loans, especially since 2007 of the state to tighten, also including all kinds of real estate investment funds, real estate letter monetary policy of the development of the real estate industry of our country of investment, etc. However, every stage of the development of real estate developers in China indicates that monetary policy is dependent on bank financing in the real estate industry, and the real estate industry in China is right

The banking system relies heavily on financial monetary policy

The limitations of regulation and the corresponding countermeasures and sensitivity are also proposed. The main policy advice of monetary policy is to adjust the reserve requirement ratio, the statutory deposit

The ratio of reserves will directly affect commercial Banks lending

The scale of the central bank has repeatedly raised the legal deposit monetary policy in the last two years. House prices; The real estate industry; The ratio of reserves, the reduction in credit, the tightening of monetary policy

There is a clear, indirect impact on the real estate sector.

One, the introduction is to the developer, the monetary policy of tightening is mentioned on the one hand

Real estate is the pillar of the national economic development, since it is a high reserve requirement ratio affect bank mortgage scale, from real estate pillar, then it will the healthy development of the relationship between each of us the source of funds of an enterprise have indirect effects; On the other hand, people. Real estate is a capital-intensive industry, is a high interest rate, improve the developer financing costs, a highly interdependent with the banking industry, financial support to lower the overall development ability, the real estate market supply relative degree also determines the degree of the real estate market development, because of insufficient. Bank credit, especially property credit, will be able to get a lot of credit from Banks in the long run, and it will affect property prices over the period. Tighter monetary policy and tighter credit are also sensitive to monetary policy. After scale in recent years, the enterprise loans difficult, for the financing to soaring housing prices in some, more than the residents of affordable channels for a single, poor business performance of enterprises, improve the credit capacity, high degree of risk, especially when there are some model of interest rate will increase the real estate industry in their management difficulty, even losses from the degree of the bubble, the collapse of real estate prices may lead to and exit the market. For those more financing channels, and increase strength of other related enterprise bankruptcy, the bank bad debts of the strong enterprise, improve loan interest rates on their shadow now contraction, consumer spending, the whole national economy into a failure is relatively small. The scale of the credit squeeze has also been reduced. We can see that, since 2007 in order to prevent the fixed evolution, promote the development of real estate market to promote housing asset growth too fast, control prices from rising too fast, inhibit the letter of the integration of real estate industry. , countries such as the excessively rapid growth of credit issued a series of macro-control measures to tighten monetary policy, and will improve the loans, such as 2007, the central bank raise deposit reserve rate, 10 times investment is decreasing interest rates, interest rates for real estate line rate, twice in 2008 the peoples bank has a direct impact to raise the deposit reserve industry. Every time though, the central bank cut interest rates, deposit reserve rate to 15.5%, cancel the amplitude is not large, but the market price changes is not that the preferential housing loan interest rates, raise the minimum size of the amplitude of the first housing loans, but whether this change is to effectively to pay down and personal housing accumulation fund loan interest rates to develop in the direction of the market mechanism of control room. For real estate developers, property credit risk, etc. Nations to take the series 'from said, willing to real estate development, because they expected a tight monetary policy' would mean that the real estate market can be gained from the development of economic profits. Tighter macroeconomic regulation will be tougher. Various monetary policy, monetary policy as the central bank interest rates rise, the development of enterprises in terms of meaning, in general, prices rise, though different in our increased the cost of financing, the enterprise the cost curve will be upward degree decline, but still in the high housing prices in some rise. Move, the profit space is small, enterprise can develop total expected profit as a monetary policy regulation policy for projects of high rate of real estate industry, low profit margin of the project is to be what kind of impact on the development of tao, and monetary policy on earth tide. Visible, a tight monetary policy, increase the ra

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货币政策对房地产行业发展的影响

P. R. Krugman

【文章摘要】

随着我国经济的快速增长，房地发商和购房者两个角度进行了分析。产业也得到了空前的发展，而房地产业二、货币政策对房地产开发商的影响的资金密集性特点使得其受国家货币政对大多数房地产企业来说，银行贷款是策调整的影响较大。货币政策包括利其进行房地产开发的主要资金来源，但从国率、汇率和物价都能作用于房地产价外发达国家较为成熟的房地产开发经营运作格，分析了货币政策对房地产市场的影模式来看，资金来源渠道较广，除银行贷款响，特别是２００７年以来国家实行从紧的外，还包括各种房地产投资基金、房地产信货币政策对我国房地产行业发展的影托投资等。而我国房地产商开发的每一阶段响，指出了货币政策对房地产行业宏观都离不开银行资金的支持，我国房地产业对

银行系统的依赖性较大，对金融货币政策的

调控的局限性，并提出了相应的对策和敏感程度也相对较高。货币政策的主要政策建议．工具就是调整法定存款准备金率，法定存款

准备金率的高低会直接影响商业银行的放贷

【关键词】规模，最近两年由于央行多次调高法定存款货币政策；房价；房地产行业；准备金率，信贷规模缩小，货币政策的紧缩作

用非常明显，对房地产行业存在间接影响。

一、引言对于开发商来说，紧缩的货币政策一方面提

房地产是国民经济发展的支柱，既然是高准备金率影响银行房贷规模，对从房地产支柱，那么它的健康发展将关系我们每一个企业的资金来源产生间接影响；另一方面提人。房地产行业是一个资金密集型产业，是高贷款利率，提高了开发商的融资成本，降一个与银行业高度依存的行业，金融支持的低了整体开发能力，致使地产市场供应相对程度也就决定了房地产市场发展程度，因为不足。银行信贷，尤其是房地产信贷会在长开发商要从银行获得大量的信贷资金，而且期内影响房地产价格。收紧银根、缩小信贷房地产投资者对货币政策也十分敏感。近年规模后，企业贷款变得困难，对于那些融资来某些地区房价飙升，超过了居民的可承受渠道单一、经营绩效差的企业来说，提高贷能力，风险度极高，尤其当房地产业存在一定款利率会增加它们的经营难度，甚至亏损从程度的泡沫时，房地产价格的崩溃可能导致而退出市场。而对那些融资渠道较多、实力其他相关企业破产增加、银行坏账大量出雄厚的企业来说，提高贷款利率对它们的影现、消费者收缩支出、整个国民经济陷入衰响相对较小。可见，信贷规模缩减还有利于退。我们可以看到，２００７年以来为防止固定促进房地产开发市场上的优胜劣汰，促进房资产增长过快，控制物价过快上涨，抑制信地产行业的整合。贷过快增长等，国家出台了一系列调控措实行从紧的货币政策，将提高贷款利施，比如２００７年央行１０次提高存款准备金率，　投资是利率的减函数，利率对房地产行率，２００８年人民银行又两次上调存款准备金业的影响比较直接。虽然，央行每次加减息利率，将存款准备金利率调至１５．５％，取消幅度都不大，但市场价格变化并不在于其变住房贷款优惠利率、提高住房贷款的最低首化的幅度大小，而在于这种变化是否向有效付成数和个人住房公积金贷款利率来控制房的市场机制方向发展。对于房地产开发商来地产信贷风险等。国家采取的这一系列“从说，愿意进行房地产开发，是因为它们预期紧的货币政策”将意味着房地产市场面临的可以从开发当中获得经济利润。实行从紧的宏观调控将更严厉。随着央行各项货币政策货币政策，贷款利率提高，对开发企业而言意的出台，总体上来说，房价增幅虽然出现不同味着融资成本增加，企业的成本曲线会向上程度下降，但某些地区房价依然在高位上涨。移动，利润空间变小，企业只能开发预期利润货币政策作为总量调控政策会对房地产行业率高的项目，预期利润率低的项目则要被淘的发展有什么样的影响，以及货币政策到底汰。可见，实行从紧的货币政策，提高贷款利196现代商业MODERN B USINESS率，可以起到减少投资的作用，从而有利于抑制房地产市场上的过度投资今年由于受美国金融危机影响，全球金融市场依然动荡，投资者恐慌情绪严重。１０月２７日，香港恒生指数午盘一度暴跌１２％。面对金融风暴，各国政府、央行纷纷出手救市，我国也不例外。我国从紧的货币政策开始松动，９月１５日、１０月８日和１０月３０日连续三次下调人民币存贷款基准利率。在相对宽松的货币条件下，房地产商融资成本降低，利润空间变大，有利于房地产业的发展。三、货币政策对需求者的影响实行从紧的货币政策，对于贷款购买住房的消费者而言，贷款利率提高意味着在住房商品上的支出增加，如果消费者的实际收入水平不变，那么偿还贷款金额的增加必然会减少消费者在其他商品上的支出，消费者的福利水平会下降。也就是说，贷款利率不断的上调会使消费者的负担加大。对于潜在的住房需求者来说，　从紧的货币政策是一种政策信号，它能够让这些需求者看到国家宏观调控的方向，意识到现在的房价过高，国家已经开始收缩房地产信贷，房地产市场随时会出现调整，房价将会下降，如果房价下降，投资房产的收益就会下降，所以不应继续在房产上进行投资。提高贷款利率也会对他们的消费心理产生影响。他们会重新思考自己的购房能力，看看自己是否能承受贷款利率不断上调、利息支出不断增加的压力。一部分消费者从自身经济实力出发，会选择退出或观望市场，从而导致潜在需求下降。在这种心理预期下，人们会减少对住房的投资需求，投资需求下降会使整个房地产市场的需求减少。投资性需求对整个房地产市场的持续、健康发展和金融安全都会构成威胁，对于投资性需求的消费者来说，从紧的货币政策会控制其投资需求，遏制投机炒房，对房地产业的持续健康发展有重要意义。四、汇率和物价对房地产业的影响货币政策会通过影响汇率和物价对房地产业产生间接影响。从紧的货币政策提高了利率，吸引大量外资的涌入，人民币也会不断升值，反过来，在人民币升值条件下，又会鼓励国外游资的进入，推高国内的房地产需求，房价稳定上升，如果升值幅度比较大，则会对房地产外部需求带来冲击，容易引发房地产泡沫。货币政策可以影响房地产价格进而作用于产出和物价；相反，经济增长和物价水平变动也会对房地产价格造成影响。经济增长必然提高人们的购买力水平，购买力提高潜在增加了购房需求，房地产价产业研究

格上涨；而物价的上涨使得房地产原料上涨，房地产价格也随之上扬。房地产价格与经济增长和物价水平之间互为因果关系。

观调控政策的共同作用下，可以抑制房价不断上涨，使房地产市场向健康、良性的方向发展。因此，除了通过实施货币政策进行宏观调控外，国家还有必要采取适当的辅助措施。

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