拥挤购物中心停车场司机的自适应选择行为外文翻译资料

Transportation 20: 395-408, 1993

@1993 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands.

Adaptive choice behaviour of motorists in congested

shopping centre parking lots

PETER VAN DER WAERDEN, HARMEN OPPEWAL amp;

HARRY TIMMERMANS

Department of Architecture and Urban Planning, Eindhoven University of Technology,

P.O. Box 513, 5600 MB Eindhoven, The Netherlands

Accepted 13 October 1992

Key words: adaptive behaviour, parking choice, stated choice model

Abstract. Currently existing models of parking choice behaviour typically focus on the choice

of types of parking spaces. Implicitly these models assume that motorists have a free choice in that spaces are available. The adaptive behaviour which they reveal when faced with congested

parking spaces is not explicitly modelled. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the growing literature on parking choice modelling by developing and testing a stated choice model of adaptive behaviour of motorists who are faced with fully occupied parking lots. The findings of the analyses indicate that the model performs satisfactory as indicated by its goodness-of-fit and the fact that all significant parameters were in anticipated directions.

Introduction

In a recent article published in this journal, Axhausen and Polak (1991) reported on the results of a stated preference model of parking choice. Their article reflects an increasing concern for parking policy issues as a key element of transport policy in many countries, and, from a methodological viewpoint, an increased awareness of the potential advantages of stated preference methods to predict consumer responses to policy measures (see e.g. Timmermans amp; Overduin 1980; Louviere 1988; Wardman t988; Louviere amp; Timmermans 1990, 1991). Stated preference or choice models may prove valuable especially in those situations where policy measures refer to hitherto unknown choice alternatives for which data cannot be collected and consequently traditional econometric revealed choice models cannot be estimated.

Axhausen and Polaks study concerned the choice of different types of parking (free on-street; metered on-street; off-street; multi-storey, and illegal parking) as a function of access time, search time, egress time, parking costs and for illegal parking: chance of fine. This focus is similar to that used in many other past studies (e.g. Ergtin 1971; Gillen 1978; Austin 1973; Hunt 1988). All these studies focus on the choice of some kind of parking facility,

Fig. 1. Framework for placing adaptive choice behaviour in a greater context.

available. Motorists are likely to adopt this strategy when they feel it takes less time to wait than to drive to another parking lot. Second, motorists may choose to park illegally, especially when they think the risk of being fined is small. Third, motorists may decide to go to another parking lot and continue their search. This strategy seems most likely for motorists who dont want to risk a parking ticket and who find that the queue is too long.

We assume that the probability of implementing one of these strategies is dependent upon characteristics of the parking situation such as the expected waiting time, the number of cars waiting, the number of parking lots visited before, the travel time to an alternative parking lot and the probability of finding a free space there, the costs of parking at an alternative parking lot, etc. We were specifically interested to investigate the way in which these factors are related to adaptive parking choice strategies.

Study design

Study area and sample

In order to develop a model of adaptive parking choice behaviour, data on motorists responses need to be collected. Data for the present study were collected in the city center of Eindhoven, The Netherlands, in June 1990.

In previous stated choice experiments, scenarios were typically placed into choice sets and individuals were requested to choose the scenario they like best from each choice set. The present study however follows a different approach in that respondents were requested to identify the kind of adaptive choice behaviour they would be most likely to reveal if they were faced with a parking situation described by a scenario. Four types of adaptive choice behaviour were identified: wait for a free space, leave current parking lot and search for an alternative parking lot elsewhere, park the car illegally or none of these. The latter choice option served as a base, and all model para-meters were scaled relative to this choice option.

The design of 81 scenarios was randomly split into 9 blocks. Each respondent received one block only, implying that respondents were asked to identify their likely adaptive behaviour for 9 scenarios. We assume that respondents are capable of providing reliable answers to these hypothetical questions. No attempt was made to customize the approach by relating it to recent parking experience.

The scenarios of the experiment were not explicitly connected to a full off-street or an on-street parking lot.

Fig. 2. Part of the inquiry.

Adaptive Choice Behaviour

Fig. 3. Maximum time motorists are willing to wait for a free parking space.

We also wished to learn if the size of the parking lot influence motorists choice of alternative parking lots. A straightforward precoded question was asked to collect this information. A majority (74%) of the sample respondents said that size does not influence their choice of parking lot when their preferred lot is congested; 22 percent would deliberately go to a larger parking lot when they cannot find a parking space at their preferred parking lot. Direct importance measurements were used to investigate the influence of parking costs on adaptive parking choice behaviour. 91 percent of the r

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